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Saturday, November 14, 2020 | History

2 edition of Delphi and cross-impact techniques found in the catalog.

Delphi and cross-impact techniques

Selwyn Enzer

Delphi and cross-impact techniques

an effective combination for systematic futures analysis.

by Selwyn Enzer

  • 232 Want to read
  • 23 Currently reading

Published by Institute for the Future in Middleton, Conn .
Written in English

    Subjects:
  • Delphi method -- Case studies.,
  • Forecasting -- Case studies.,
  • Social prediction -- Case studies.

  • Edition Notes

    Includes bibliographical references.

    SeriesInstitute for the Future. Working paper -- WP-8
    Classifications
    LC ClassificationsHM24 .E59
    The Physical Object
    Paginationv, 29 p. :
    Number of Pages29
    ID Numbers
    Open LibraryOL19328268M

    Delphi techniques were developed to gain consensus within a group of military experts on a very sensitive problem. This stage lasted from the early s to the early s, when it was declassified. The second stage, novelty, lasted from the mids to the late s.


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Delphi and cross-impact techniques by Selwyn Enzer Download PDF EPUB FB2

The Delphi method: techniques and applications Harold A. Linstone, Murray Turoff Addison-Wesley Pub. Co., Advanced Book Program, - Education - pages.

In the traditional Delphi method, experts provide their input to a set of questions; these inputs are anonymous to encourage the expression of personal opinions and avoid the "bandwagon effect. An Alternative Approach to Cross-Impact Analysis Murray Turoff (k) A Primer for a New Cross-Impact Language—KSIM (with Examples Shown from Transportation Policy) Julius Kane (k) Specialized Techniques Introduction Harold A.

Linstone and Murray Turoff (18k) A Delphi Study of Factors Delphi and cross-impact techniques book the Quality of Life Norman C. Dalkey (k). Delphi process to aggregate varied individual opinions (e.g., scenario planning, cross-impact analysis and.

interpretive structural modeling [11], and urstone’s Law scaling method[12]). 3H o w t. The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈ d ɛ l f aɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.

The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). This book (free on my website) was stored as one file on Academia by a non-author (Thu le) and i cannot modify that.

However, i have listed the table of contents and if you go to my website you can get any of the chapters and papers you want. Appendix: Delphi Bibliography the articles in the book. We have broken the reference material into a number of separate sections. It is felt this particular breakdown will make the reference list of "Delphi and Cross-Impact Techniques-An Effective Combination for Systematic Futures Analysis," FUTURES 3.

a time-dependent version of cross impact, an approach first explored by John Stover in simulating the economy of Uruguay (). A simulation method, called Interax (), that incorporated cross-impact concepts was developed by Selwyn Enzer at the University of California (USA). Ducos integrated Delphi and cross impact ().

Cross-impact analysis is a methodology developed by Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer in to help determine how relationships between events would impact resulting events and reduce uncertainty in the future. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) became interested in the methodology in the late s and early s as an analytic technique for predicting how different factors and Delphi and cross-impact techniques book.

Ducos integrated Delphi and cross impact () • Bonnicksen at Texas A&M University (USA), in a process called EZ-IMPACT, used the cross-impact approach in a workshop gaming application to explore policy options among contentious parties • KSIM, a simulation technique developed by J.

Kane () was based on expected interactions between. The word Delphi refers to the hallowed site of the most revered oracle in ancient Greece. Legend has it that the earth goddess Gaia long ago inhabited this site and was protected by the dragon. Bañuls and Turoff discuss the role of cross-impact analysis as an adjunct to Delphi in scenario development, and provide a full description to enable their approach to be replicated.

On the other hand, Nowack and colleagues [10] discuss how Delphi itself might provide input into scenario planning, and they review the studies in which this has. Suggested improvements to the Delphi/cross-impact technique. Author pagesand idem, Januarypages SUGGESTED IMPROVEMENTS TO THE DELPHI/CROSS-IMPACT TECHNIQUE John Stover SEVERAL articles have appeared in Futures concerning the combination of the Delphi technique and cross-impact analysis to create a method of evalua- ting.

From Strategic Analysis to Organizational Foresight: 65 Techniques for Diagnosing Present Realities and Potential Futures - Kindle edition by Gladden, Matthew E.

Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading From Strategic Analysis to Organizational Foresight: 65 Techniques for Diagnosing Reviews: 6. dynamics and a time-dependent version of cross impact, an approach first explored by John Stover in simulating the economy of Uruguay ().

A simulation method, called Interax (), that incorporated cross-impact concepts was developed by Selwyn Enzer at the University of California (USA). Ducos integrated Delphi and cross impact (). Full text of "DTIC ADA The Delphi Method and Its Applications: A Bibliography" See other formats.

Cross impact analysis is a method used in forecasting exercises aimed at measuring the correlation between future events (variables).

Mainly in the field of technological developments, CIA is applied to identify how developments in one area interact with those in another, how strong the mutual influence is and in how far it affects the outcome. References Adler, M. & Ziglio, E. () Gazing into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and its Application to Social Policy and Public Health.

Jessica Kingsley Publishers, London. Firstly, because of the figure of the Olaf Helmer, methodologist of forecasting techniques, known mostly from the pioneering development of the Delphi method, as well as the creator of cross-impact analysis. Heritage Olaf Helmer, associated among other things with the Rand Corporations, UCLA, or the Institute for the Future is encoded on a Reviews: 1.

In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business : $   S ometimes a blunt-force tool is best for grinding through the analysis and exploration of ideas.

Cross impact analysis* is just that. It forces you to test out the interactions among a set of forces, trends, or decisions. The image at the right shows the basic concept, but let’s look a little closer at how to make this tool simple and useful.

This compilation of papers on Delphi techniques and applications is organized in eight parts: an introduction, and sections covering philosophy, general applications, evaluation, cross-impact analysis, specialized tech-niques, computers and the future of Delphi, and.

Cross impact analysis is often thought of as an extension of the Delphi Survey. Like its name entails, it involves identifying and evaluating the impact of trends or events upon each other.

Cross impact analysis is commonly used as part of an expert−opinion study, which is. Forecasting techniques have a widespread area from simple regression to complex metaheuristics like neural networks and genetic algorithms.

Economic forecasting is the process of attempting to predict the future condition of the economy. It is the projection or estimation of statistical measures of. We cast scenarios and calculate outcomes through new techniques and proven scientific methods.

Our foresight program combines backcasting, scenario planning, the Delphi method, horizon scanning, trend radar, cross-impact analysis, progression curves, and agent-based models. COLLABORATION.

The book Crimewarps was written by futurist. Georgette Bennett. Main techniques ARE: 1)Trend extrapolation 2) Cross-impact analysis 3) Delphi method 4) Environmental scanning 5) Scenario writing 6) Strategic assesment.

Consistently practical in its coverage, the book discusses general issues related to forecasting and management; introduces a variety of methods, and shows how to apply these methods to significant issues in managing technological development.

With numerous exhibits, case studies and exercises throughout, it requires only basic mathematics and includes a special technology forecasting TOOLKIT. Part C - Techniques for the strategic planner 8 Portfolio management, Delphi techniques and scenarios Business portfolio management The Boston ConsuIting Group growth-share matrix Portfolio management and the construction industry Delphi techniques Scenarios Cross impact analysis 9 Marketing and promotional strategies in construction.

The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, edited by Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff — a comprehensive book on Delphi method (free download, 11Mb PDF, pages) RAND publications on the Delphi Method Downloadable documents from RAND. However, when cross-impact analysis is used in conjunction with another methodology [such as the Delphi Method], the power of the forecast is considerably enhanced.

Delphi Method. Developed at the RAND Corporation by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey, the Delphi Method is based on an anonymous series of iterations and feedback which solicit and. A list of references cited in the Futures Research book. The ERIC Clearinghouse on Higher Education abstracts and indexes the current literature on higher education for the National Institute of Education's monthly bibliographic journal Resources in of these publications are available through the ERIC Document Reproduction Service (EDRS).

Enzer, S., Delphi and Cross Impact Techniques, Institute for the Future, Google Scholar Helmer, O, The Delphi Method for Systematizing Judgments About the Future, University of California, Los Angeles, Google Scholar. This banner text can have markup. web; books; video; audio; software; images; Toggle navigation.

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how the Delphi Technique could be used as an evaluation tool to improve the structure of instructional design models in the development of e-learning curriculum.

To demonstrate the diversity and robustness of the Delphi Technique process, five studies were selected that range from fashion design forecasting to the online development of an.

Cross-impact analysis experimentation using two techniques to revise marginal probabilities of considerably di erent from older techniques such as Delphi [3] for future forecasting.

revise marginal probabilities of interdependent events. The rst technique is based on Monte Carlo simulation, and the second on the di erence equation. Scenario analysis attempts to capture the nonlinearity, complexity, and unpredictability of turbulent environments by incorporating techniques for eliciting and aggregating group judgments, specifically through Delphi techniques and cross-impact matrices.

The Delphi technique involves asking an anonymous panel of experts to estimate. Each of these techniques provides a way to help identify possible risks that may occur in your ongoing economic activity. It’s important that you identify all the risks early on. The better job you do of identifying the projects risks at the planning stage, the more comprehensive the risk response plan will be.

converging techniques that alternately expand and Locus the participants thoughts. The steps are as follows: brainstorming, a Delphi survey of perceived possibilities, a resulting "futures wheel" showing a divergent pattern of multiple causality, "cross impact matrices" evaluating reciprocal causality, and finally, written scenarios.

Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise toward formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today.

This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail, and utility from existing/5. Environment scanning helps the signals of potential changes in the environment.

It also detects the changes that are already under way. It normally reveals ambiguous, incomplete, or unconnected data and information. It involves a detailed and micro study of the environment. Hence, it is also called the X-ray of the environment. Demand Forecasting: It’s Meaning, Types, Techniques and Method!

Types of Forecasting. Forecasting Techniques. Criteria of a Good Forecasting Method. Forecasts are becoming the lifetime of business in a world, where the tidal waves of change are sweeping the .Cross Impact is a 3 rd class offensive skill available as Guillotine Cross.

Effect. Performs a flurry of seven hits at a single target while spinning it. When Enchant Deadly Poison is active when this skill is used, the skill modifier is halved. Damage ()% = (Base_Damage × BaseLv ÷ ).Cross-impact analysis is the general name given to a family of techniques designed to evaluate changes in the probability of the occurrence of a given set of events consequent on the actual occurrence of one of them.

Cross-impact analysis can be used in combination with the Delphi method to check cross impacts between events, as a tool to.